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CML Forecast 16% Mortgage Lending Growth In Next 2 Years

CML Forecast 16% Mortgage Lending Growth In Next 2 Years

Council of Mortgage Lenders Predict Significant
Mortgage Lending Growth

The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) have predicted that gross mortgage lending in the UK will increase by 16% over the next two years.

The CML says gross mortgage lending in the UK reached around £207 Billion (GBP) in 2014 and they firmly believe that gross mortgage lending will grow by 7% to £222 Billion (GBP) during 2015.

Following that, the CML also forecast a further 8% increase to £240 Billion (GBP) in 2016, up 16% when compared to gross mortgage lending in 2014.

While the CML are happy to forecast 2 years of mortgage lending growth, it acknowledges that the pace of growth has slowed compared with the 18% recorded from 2013 to 2014, with gross mortgage lending increasing from £176 Billion (GBP) in 2013 to £207 Billion (GBP) in 2014.

In its analysis, the CML said that the stamp duty reforms announced by the Chancellor, George Osborne, in the Autumn budget would help boost overall mortgage lending activity, following the lull encountered in the summer of 2014.

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BoE Base Interest Rate Set To Remain Low Until 2015

BoE Base Interest Rate Set To Remain Low Until 2015

Base Interest Rates Set To Remain At
Low Levels Until The End Of 2015

A new economic forecast by Ernst & Young’s (EY) independent forecasting group, the Item Club, reckons that Bank of England (BoE) interest rates will remain at their historic low until the end of 2015 as wages start to outstrip inflation.

The Bank of England’s base rate has an impact on mortgage loans on property and savings returns and with the base rate remaining at 0.5%, it expects house prices to rise by 7.4% this year and 7.2% next year.

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UK PRS Landlords Expect Tenant Demand To Increase

UK PRS Landlords Expect Tenant Demand To Increase

42% Of UK PRS Landlords Plan 2014 Rent Increases

According to the latest survey by specialist house share website, Spareroom.co.uk, 42% of UK private rented sector landlords expect to increase rental prices over the next 12 months and of those some 26% are planning to increase rents by more than 3%, which is significantly higher than inflation.

In their latest Rental Index, Spareroom revealed the average cost of a double bedroom in a shared house increased by 4.5% in the final quarter of 2013, reaching a new average of £507 (GBP) per calendar month.

Room rents in London also saw a rise in prices, with an increase of 2% over the same time frame, meaning the average cost of a double room in a shared house in the nation’s capital is now at an average cost of £676 (GBP) per calendar month.

Whilst some landlords plan to increase rental prices, 58% of Spareroom’s Rental Index respondents stated that they will not be raising rents and 5% of UK PRS landlords claimed that they intend to reduce rents during 2014. 

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New Help to Buy scheme may not be much use to first-time buyers as property prices continue to rise

New Help to Buy scheme may not be much use to first-time buyers as property prices continue to rise

Help to Buy scheme may boost

UK property prices
but may not be much use

to first time buyers

The controversial Government incentive scheme “Help to Buy” set for launch on 1st January 2014 is designed to aid first time buyers with property purchases and in turn this incentive could boost the UK residential property sales market without being of any real use to first-time buyers.

Morgan Stanley have issued a forecast that UK residential property prices are expected to increase between 8% and 13% before the end of 2014 and the bank reckons that its forecast is “supported by government policy”.

The investment bank’s prediction follows a warning by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) which says that the Help to Buy scheme offering 95% mortgages, due to launch in January 2014, could pump up UK residential property prices but would not necessarily increase the supply of available residential property.

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