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Government Issue Response To Tax Relief Petition

Government Issue Response To Tax Relief Petition

Government Issue Muted Response To Tax Relief Petition

The Government has published a response to the online petition that opposes the proposals to change the amount of tax relief on buy to let mortgages announced by the Chancellor, George Osborne, in the post election summer budget.

From April 2017 onwards landlords will only be able to claim the basic rate tax relief rather than the higher rate tax relief on buy to let mortgage payments. It is widely feared that the move will severely affect the profitability of the private rented sector (PRS).

The online petition to reverse the planned tax restrictions on individual landlords has attracted more than 23,600 signatures since being posted.

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Treasury Watchdog Sounds Alarm Over Runaway Property Market

Treasury Watchdog Sounds Alarm Over Runaway Property Market

Treasury Watchdog Sounds Alarm Over Runaway Property Market

  • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) says speculators are inflating property prices
  • Average price of a London home is expected to jump from £458,000 (GBP) to £650,000 (GBP) by the year 2020
  • Average price of a UK residential property reached £254,000 (GBP) in January

Following on from last Friday’s post about the Government’s independent watchdog the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the Treasury’s chief watchdog, Robert Chote has spoken out.

Soaring UK property prices are being inflated by speculators banking on further gains, causing Robert Chote, head of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), to issue a warning that the UK is on the verge of a dangerous housing bubble.

Mr Chote told Treasury Select Committee MP’s: “With very rapid house price increases in some parts of the country you might see bubbly activity where people are willing to buy stuff off plan or not intend to live in it. The surge in prices is partly down to soaring demand, driven by rising confidence, increased lending, and government schemes such as Help-To-Buy combined with a general lack of supply. You can explain the increase in house prices by fundamentals without having to resort to saying there is a bubble going on. That doesn’t mean to say there may not be some bubbly components to what is going on in the housing market in particular parts of the country.

Treasury Watchdog Sounds Alarm Over Runaway Property Market as average price of a typical residential property climbed to £254,000 (GBP) in January 2014 – an increase of 6.8% in a year

Treasury Watchdog Sounds Alarm Over Runaway Property Market as average price of a typical residential property climbed to £254,000 (GBP) in January 2014 – an increase of 6.8% in a year

Official figures show the average price of a typical residential property climbed to £254,000 (GBP) in January 2014 – an increase of 6.8% in a year.

Residential property prices were up:

  • 13.2% in London
  • 7.1% in the South East
  • 6.9% in Wales.

As already reported on Spotlight, the OBR expects house prices to rise by more than 30% in the next five years, meaning that the average price of a typical residential property in London is expected to jump from £458,000 (GBP) to £650,000 (GBP) over the next six years.

Mr Chote insisted that the OBR was not “taking a view that house prices are over or undervalued, house price inflation should cool from 8.5% this year to 3.7% in 2017 and 2018.

Steve Nickell, an economist who sits on the OBR with Mr Chote, said: “A bubble arises when demand is being driven by people wanting to get in because of expectations of price growth rather than for somewhere to live. The house price to income ratio has been growing for the last 40 years but that cannot go on forever because everything you consume would become housing and there would be nothing else left.’

But David Ruffley, a Tory MP on the Treasury committee, said forecasters always expect a ‘benign return to equilibrium’ and fail to predict the cycle of boom and bust.

Budget Sparks Property Price Increase Fear

Budget Sparks Property Price Increase Fear

UK property prices set to soar by 30%
Says Office for Budget Responsibility

UK residential property prices could increase sharply over the next five years, fuelled by a rise in the number of savers choosing to invest in property rather than taking annuity.

The forecast comes from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), following the changes announced in George Osborne’s latest Budget which means that people will not be forced to take an annuity when they retire and instead they can choose to invest their money as they wish.

Many people are expected to use their pension pot to invest in property, rather than in currently poorly performing pensions, driving up UK property prices in the process.

The OBR has revised its forecast for UK residential property price growth in the next five years from 27% up to 30.8%.

According to the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast, anticipated UK residential property price growth is expected to be:

  • 8.6% in 2014/2015
  • 7.4% in 2015/2016
  • 4.3% in 2016/2017
  • 3.7% in 2017/2018
  • 3.7% in 2018/2019.

The predictions are the OBR’s best guess, they are not accurate in any way shape or form and should be used as a guide only. These are not fact, just speculation.

The OBR are supposed to be an independent fiscal body, however, they estimate that by the end of their forecast period, UK property prices should be just 0.5% below their pre-crisis peak, and the property price to income ratio is estimated to reach 2.3% below its pre-crisis peak.

The OBR also expects transaction volumes will increase at a faster pace than originally forecast over the coming five years. Estimating 1.28 Million housing transactions in 2014/2015, some 6% higher than the previous OBR forecast in December 2013.

The OBR also predict that Stamp Duty receipts will rise 90% over the next four years from £9.5 Billion (GBP) in 2013-14 to £18.1 Billion (GBP) in 2018-19.

The OBR report said: “House prices have continued to accelerate since our December forecast with annual growth reaching 5.5 % in December 2013. We expect house prices to peak earlier than in our December forecast at 9.2% in the 3rd quarter of 2014, with prices rising by around 30% by 2018-19.”

Property price growth is currently being led by London where even large estate agency groups like Savills forecast property values to surge by almost a quarter over the next five years.

According to a five-year outlook recently published by Savills, a number of risks to the prime property markets, such as Eurozone default, have receded over the past two years and Inner London boroughs could see a growth of 23.1%, and property prices in other areas of the capital could also rise by 22.7%.

Help To Buy Could Boost UK Property Market

Help To Buy Could Boost UK Property Market

The Help To Buy mortgage indemnity scheme proposed by Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, in the budget announcement made last week is expected to raise both property transaction levels and property prices.

The Help To Buy mortgage indemnity scheme which kicks in next January is designed to generate £3.5 Billion (GBP) of new lending, could be administered by ‘bad banks’ Northern Rock Asset Management and Bradford & Bingley, now in the umbrella of UK Asset Resolution.

Lenders would have to pay to participate in the scheme, but the price has not yet been set.

Estate agents expect Help to Buy to enable people to buy both existing properties and new build homes with 95% mortgages.

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