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Budget Sparks Property Price Increase Fear

Budget Sparks Property Price Increase Fear

UK property prices set to soar by 30%
Says Office for Budget Responsibility

UK residential property prices could increase sharply over the next five years, fuelled by a rise in the number of savers choosing to invest in property rather than taking annuity.

The forecast comes from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), following the changes announced in George Osborne’s latest Budget which means that people will not be forced to take an annuity when they retire and instead they can choose to invest their money as they wish.

Many people are expected to use their pension pot to invest in property, rather than in currently poorly performing pensions, driving up UK property prices in the process.

The OBR has revised its forecast for UK residential property price growth in the next five years from 27% up to 30.8%.

According to the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast, anticipated UK residential property price growth is expected to be:

  • 8.6% in 2014/2015
  • 7.4% in 2015/2016
  • 4.3% in 2016/2017
  • 3.7% in 2017/2018
  • 3.7% in 2018/2019.

The predictions are the OBR’s best guess, they are not accurate in any way shape or form and should be used as a guide only. These are not fact, just speculation.

The OBR are supposed to be an independent fiscal body, however, they estimate that by the end of their forecast period, UK property prices should be just 0.5% below their pre-crisis peak, and the property price to income ratio is estimated to reach 2.3% below its pre-crisis peak.

The OBR also expects transaction volumes will increase at a faster pace than originally forecast over the coming five years. Estimating 1.28 Million housing transactions in 2014/2015, some 6% higher than the previous OBR forecast in December 2013.

The OBR also predict that Stamp Duty receipts will rise 90% over the next four years from £9.5 Billion (GBP) in 2013-14 to £18.1 Billion (GBP) in 2018-19.

The OBR report said: “House prices have continued to accelerate since our December forecast with annual growth reaching 5.5 % in December 2013. We expect house prices to peak earlier than in our December forecast at 9.2% in the 3rd quarter of 2014, with prices rising by around 30% by 2018-19.”

Property price growth is currently being led by London where even large estate agency groups like Savills forecast property values to surge by almost a quarter over the next five years.

According to a five-year outlook recently published by Savills, a number of risks to the prime property markets, such as Eurozone default, have receded over the past two years and Inner London boroughs could see a growth of 23.1%, and property prices in other areas of the capital could also rise by 22.7%.

Smaller Buy-To-Let Properties Provide The Best Rental Yields

Smaller Buy-To-Let Properties Provide The Best Rental Yields

Smaller Buy-To-Let Properties Provide

 The Best Rental Yields

A one-bedroomed rental property in Wales may not sound like the most glamourous of property investments but it could deliver the best rental returns for landlords according to a new in-depth buy-to-let report by the UK’s largest lettings agency Countrywide.

A survey of more than 50,000 Private rented sector property owners has revealed Buy-to-let landlords are getting excellent rental yields in Wales, the North of England and the Midlands from 1 and 2 bedroom rental properties.

Landlords in many parts of Wales are achieving an average 6.7% rental yield (rent measured as a percentage of the property price), beating the North of England and the Midlands, which both average a 6.5% rental yield.

These figures are substantially higher than the average 4.6% rental yield observed in parts of Central London, regarded as the red hot heart of the UK’s property market.

One and two-bedroom rental properties have seen the greatest increase in average monthly rental prices in April 2013, with a 1.4% and 1.3% month-on-month increase to £679 (GBP) and £766 (GBP), respectively.

The detailed report into buy-to-let rental returns was conducted by Countrywide, who found that average monthly rental prices in England, Scotland and Wales have continued to increase for six consecutive months to reach an average of £842 (GBP) in April 2013.

But rent increases remain below the increased cost of living, with an annual average increase of just 0.8% measured against Consumer Price Index inflation of 2.8%.

However, average monthly rents have fallen within Central London, the South East, Wales and parts of Greater London.

The biggest rental price drop of 6.3% was seen in Central London, where average monthly PRS rental prices average £2,371 (GBP), more than double the £1,106 (GBP) recorded in parts of Greater London.

Rental returns by location

 

Rental returns by location - Source: Countrywide

Rental returns by location – Source: Countrywide

 

Nick Dunning, from Countrywide, said: “With renting for longer now the norm for many people as they save for a deposit to buy their first home, we are seeing more young families looking to rent cheaper accommodation, hence the increase in demand for smaller rental properties. While prime Central London has seen the greatest fall at 6.3%, this is simply reflecting the fact that in April stock levels in prime Central London were very high compared to last year which benefited from the Olympics. As a result this April, tenants tended to view multiple properties putting in lower offers, which some landlords accepted. However, as demand picks up into the summer, and supply and demand becomes more balanced, the same property could easily rent for more in August than in April.”

Returns by property type

 

Rental returns by property type - Source: Countrywide

Rental returns by property type – Source: Countrywide

 

Source: Countrywide

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