Currently viewing the tag: "forecast"
CML Forecast 16% Mortgage Lending Growth In Next 2 Years

CML Forecast 16% Mortgage Lending Growth In Next 2 Years

Council of Mortgage Lenders Predict Significant
Mortgage Lending Growth

The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) have predicted that gross mortgage lending in the UK will increase by 16% over the next two years.

The CML says gross mortgage lending in the UK reached around £207 Billion (GBP) in 2014 and they firmly believe that gross mortgage lending will grow by 7% to £222 Billion (GBP) during 2015.

Following that, the CML also forecast a further 8% increase to £240 Billion (GBP) in 2016, up 16% when compared to gross mortgage lending in 2014.

While the CML are happy to forecast 2 years of mortgage lending growth, it acknowledges that the pace of growth has slowed compared with the 18% recorded from 2013 to 2014, with gross mortgage lending increasing from £176 Billion (GBP) in 2013 to £207 Billion (GBP) in 2014.

In its analysis, the CML said that the stamp duty reforms announced by the Chancellor, George Osborne, in the Autumn budget would help boost overall mortgage lending activity, following the lull encountered in the summer of 2014.

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UK Property Market Predictions For 2015

UK Property Market Predictions For 2015

What Will Happen To
The UK Property Market In 2015?

Happy New Year to all our readers, and welcome to the usual confusion over what the year ahead will bring for the UK property market.

Property prices are still predicted to rise in 2015, albeit at a much slower pace than in 2014, with economists and property experts providing forecasts ranging from 3% to 5% property price growth.

However, there are a few events that might affect the UK property market in 2015, namely the general election that will be held in May and the growing probability of Bank of England (BoE) raising the base interest rate.

Regarding the general election, it all could depend which party wins or what coalition combination is named to form the Government, after Labour recently confirmed that they would introduce a mansion tax if they come to power. Meaning that the changes to Stamp Duty that were announced in the 2014 Autumn budget would be negated if Labour win.

Less clear is what will happen with Bank of England interest rates. It had been predicted that a small rise, either by a quarter to half of a percent, was going to be introduced before the end of 2014, but that didn’t happen. Then it was going to be early 2015 but that is now also looking very unlikely.

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Bank Of England Governor Hints At Earlier Base Rate Hike

Bank Of England Governor Hints At Earlier Base Rate Hike

Is Mark Carney Eager To Raise Interest Rates?

The Governor of the Bank of England (BoE), Mark Carney, has drawn further criticism from economists after giving another mixed signal on the timing of any base rate increase away from the current historic low.

In an interview with the Sunday Times newspaper Mr Carney took great care to big up the health of the nation’s economy and insisted that the Bank of England would not wait for employed peoples wages to catch-up with the cost of living before hiking interest rates.

Mr Carney told the Sunday Times: “Wherever the finish line was in the depths of the crisis, we are much more than halfway towards that finish line now. The expansion is proceeding, momentum is more assured. The very fact we have had consistent quarters of growth in line with, or slightly better than, our forecasts shows that. We have to have the confidence that prospective real wages are going to be growing sustainably, before raising interest rates, we don’t have to wait for the fact of that turn to raise them.”

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BoE Base Interest Rate Set To Remain Low Until 2015

BoE Base Interest Rate Set To Remain Low Until 2015

Base Interest Rates Set To Remain At
Low Levels Until The End Of 2015

A new economic forecast by Ernst & Young’s (EY) independent forecasting group, the Item Club, reckons that Bank of England (BoE) interest rates will remain at their historic low until the end of 2015 as wages start to outstrip inflation.

The Bank of England’s base rate has an impact on mortgage loans on property and savings returns and with the base rate remaining at 0.5%, it expects house prices to rise by 7.4% this year and 7.2% next year.

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Budget Sparks Property Price Increase Fear

Budget Sparks Property Price Increase Fear

UK property prices set to soar by 30%
Says Office for Budget Responsibility

UK residential property prices could increase sharply over the next five years, fuelled by a rise in the number of savers choosing to invest in property rather than taking annuity.

The forecast comes from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), following the changes announced in George Osborne’s latest Budget which means that people will not be forced to take an annuity when they retire and instead they can choose to invest their money as they wish.

Many people are expected to use their pension pot to invest in property, rather than in currently poorly performing pensions, driving up UK property prices in the process.

The OBR has revised its forecast for UK residential property price growth in the next five years from 27% up to 30.8%.

According to the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast, anticipated UK residential property price growth is expected to be:

  • 8.6% in 2014/2015
  • 7.4% in 2015/2016
  • 4.3% in 2016/2017
  • 3.7% in 2017/2018
  • 3.7% in 2018/2019.

The predictions are the OBR’s best guess, they are not accurate in any way shape or form and should be used as a guide only. These are not fact, just speculation.

The OBR are supposed to be an independent fiscal body, however, they estimate that by the end of their forecast period, UK property prices should be just 0.5% below their pre-crisis peak, and the property price to income ratio is estimated to reach 2.3% below its pre-crisis peak.

The OBR also expects transaction volumes will increase at a faster pace than originally forecast over the coming five years. Estimating 1.28 Million housing transactions in 2014/2015, some 6% higher than the previous OBR forecast in December 2013.

The OBR also predict that Stamp Duty receipts will rise 90% over the next four years from £9.5 Billion (GBP) in 2013-14 to £18.1 Billion (GBP) in 2018-19.

The OBR report said: “House prices have continued to accelerate since our December forecast with annual growth reaching 5.5 % in December 2013. We expect house prices to peak earlier than in our December forecast at 9.2% in the 3rd quarter of 2014, with prices rising by around 30% by 2018-19.”

Property price growth is currently being led by London where even large estate agency groups like Savills forecast property values to surge by almost a quarter over the next five years.

According to a five-year outlook recently published by Savills, a number of risks to the prime property markets, such as Eurozone default, have receded over the past two years and Inner London boroughs could see a growth of 23.1%, and property prices in other areas of the capital could also rise by 22.7%.

UK PRS Landlords Expect Tenant Demand To Increase

UK PRS Landlords Expect Tenant Demand To Increase

42% Of UK PRS Landlords Plan 2014 Rent Increases

According to the latest survey by specialist house share website, Spareroom.co.uk, 42% of UK private rented sector landlords expect to increase rental prices over the next 12 months and of those some 26% are planning to increase rents by more than 3%, which is significantly higher than inflation.

In their latest Rental Index, Spareroom revealed the average cost of a double bedroom in a shared house increased by 4.5% in the final quarter of 2013, reaching a new average of £507 (GBP) per calendar month.

Room rents in London also saw a rise in prices, with an increase of 2% over the same time frame, meaning the average cost of a double room in a shared house in the nation’s capital is now at an average cost of £676 (GBP) per calendar month.

Whilst some landlords plan to increase rental prices, 58% of Spareroom’s Rental Index respondents stated that they will not be raising rents and 5% of UK PRS landlords claimed that they intend to reduce rents during 2014. 

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Will It Be A Happy New Year For Property Investors And Landlords?

Will It Be A Happy New Year For Property Investors And Landlords?

Goodbye 2013 – Hello 2014!

2013 may have been the year when the recovery of the UK housing market began following the introduction of the Government’s Help-To-Buy scheme and Funding-For-Lending initiative, but it also saw proposals for greater regulation of the private rental sector including extra responsibilities for UK landlords.

New regulation proposals caused major concern among property professionals after the Government announced that they wanted UK PRS landlords to police the immigration status of all tenants. Landlord associations and industry professionals argued over the proposals claiming that landlords would end up unpaid agents of the UK Border Agency and demanded that the legislation be watered down.

The Government want to have more control over the private rented sector as they know that property investors and landlords are able to generate decent returns offering property for rent as tenant demand remains strong, however there is the danger that over regulation may end up discouraging property investors and landlords from expanding property portfolios.

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Where Will Property Investors Get The Best Return From In 5 Years Time?

Where Will Property Investors Get The Best Return From In 5 Years Time?

Where Will Property Investors Get The Best Return From In 5 Years Time?

Savills have released their UK property price predictions for the next 5 years identifying what they think are the best UK regions to purchase properties in based on expected Capital Gains.

Residential properties in the South East region are predicted to increase in value by as much as 31.9%, whilst the East of England could see property prices rise by 30.4%.

In the South West region of the UK, Savills expect property prices to jump by 29.4% with increases in property values not increasing by as much in more Northern parts of the UK.

According to the 5 year forecast, East-Midlands property prices could increase by as much as 24.6%, however, London property prices are only expected to rise by 24.4%.

West-Midlands property prices are also expected to increase by up to 23.4% according to the forecast, but property prices in Wales are only predicted to increase by 21%

The city of York in the Yorkshire & Humber region could expect property price rises around 20.5% according to Savills and over the Pennines in the North West, property prices are estimated to increase by 19.3% in next 5 years, as is also the case in Scotland.

North East property price predictions are the worst of the company’s forecast only expected to grow by 17.6% over the next 5 years.

The property price predictions do not appear to take into account the effect of the Help-To-Buy scheme on the UK property market, nor do they allow for the prospect of another property price bubble or even another huge property crash.

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Rightmove Doubles UK Property Values Forecast As Property Prices Increase Again

Rightmove Doubles UK Property Values Forecast As Property Prices Increase Again

UK property values increase for seventh month in a row

UK property values have reached a new five year high, according to property portal, Rightmove, who revised their forecast of UK residential property values, and now reckon that residential property prices will increase to double their previous property value forecast for 2013.

As Spotlight reported last week, residential property values have already increased by 0.3% to average £253,658 (GBP), and now Rightmove reckon property values will now climb by up to 4% this year instead of the 2% previously predicted. However, it wasn’t good news for the whole country as residential property prices in London remained unchanged, holding at a record average of £515,379 (GBP).

The economic incentives introduced by the Government and the Bank of England (BoE) to increase overall lending and credit supply has boosted the demand for residential property ownership from first time buyers.

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There Will Never Be A Better Time To Invest In Property

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