Council of Mortgage Lenders Predict Significant
Mortgage Lending Growth
The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) have predicted that gross mortgage lending in the UK will increase by 16% over the next two years.
The CML says gross mortgage lending in the UK reached around £207 Billion (GBP) in 2014 and they firmly believe that gross mortgage lending will grow by 7% to £222 Billion (GBP) during 2015.
Following that, the CML also forecast a further 8% increase to £240 Billion (GBP) in 2016, up 16% when compared to gross mortgage lending in 2014.
While the CML are happy to forecast 2 years of mortgage lending growth, it acknowledges that the pace of growth has slowed compared with the 18% recorded from 2013 to 2014, with gross mortgage lending increasing from £176 Billion (GBP) in 2013 to £207 Billion (GBP) in 2014.
In its analysis, the CML said that the stamp duty reforms announced by the Chancellor, George Osborne, in the Autumn budget would help boost overall mortgage lending activity, following the lull encountered in the summer of 2014.Buy-to-let mortgage activity is also expected to grow in terms of increased activity and gross mortgage lending, though the CML warns that “buy-to-let activity is subject to a degree of regulatory uncertainty on several fronts, however, this brings risks for its continuing orderly evolution. Looking ahead over the next two years, housing and mortgage market developments appear well supported by relatively favourable economic fundamentals. However, prudent and sustainable mortgage lending in the face of ongoing affordability pressures necessarily limits the further upside scope for mortgage lending.”
In other words, the future could be great for property owners, so long as they can afford to keep paying their mortgages and so long as current housing needs are met by achievable house building targets being met by developers.
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